Relax.
The Dodgers still own this. The Dodgers are still in control. The Dodgers still have the New York Mets right where they want them.
Two games at Dodger Stadium. Win one and advance to the World Series. Shohei Ohtani hot. Mookie Betts hotter. Andy Pages burning out of nowhere. A rested and nearly unhittable bullpen for Game 6. Walker Buehler prepared to throw legendary fists in a Game 7, if necessary.
Done deal, still.
Yes, the Dodgers blew their first shot at the Fall Classic on Friday night in a 12-6 loss to the Mets in Game 5 of the NLCS Friday at Citi Field, shrinking their lead to 3-2.
And yes, at one point it was a tad unsettling for your faithful correspondent when a fan sitting outside the press box spotted me and held up his phone containing my story from the previous day in which I proclaimed this series was over. The fan and his buddy began screaming at me, to which I now offer this reply.
Sir, I am doubling down.
The Dodgers are still going to win this series. They are still going to the World Series. The Mets got a little juice from the hometown crowd Friday, but they’re still the Mets, they still burned their best reliever to protect a six-run lead, they still took senseless swings, this is still over.
“They did better today,” said Teoscar Hernández, conceding nothing. “That’s how the game is.”
After spending their pregame interview sessions talking about how it felt to be on the precipice of the World Series, the Dodgers quickly fell into a loud and strange abyss that was an outlier, not a trend.
The singing, bouncing fans here were already fired up when the Temptations sang the national anthem before following up with “My Girl” in honor of Francisco Lindor’s walk-up song. The fans became even more inspired when Ohtani was stranded on third base in the first inning after surprisingly not scoring on a grounder to shortstop Lindor.
“I think he just had a brain cramp and locked up there,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts of Ohtani during an in-game broadcast interview, a rare critique of Superman.
The Dodgers’ hopes went downhill from there, thanks to a sudden weariness in pitcher Jack Flaherty’s right arm. That was the strange part. Five days after shutting down the Mets on two hits in seven innings in winning this series opener, Flaherty had nothing Friday night, his fastball was two mph slower than his usual, and the Mets clobbered him.
The Burbank kid desperately wanted to pitch the Dodgers into baseball’s main stage next week and, instead, he pitched them back to Chavez Ravine this weekend, a sweet story temporarily ruined.
Shortly after Flaherty took the mound, he gave up three runs on a Pete Alonso homer, then was shelled for five runs in the third inning on a variety of walks and hits, eventually giving up eight runs in three innings, just awful.
“He wasn’t sharp, clearly, he’s been fighting something,” Roberts said. “He’s been under the weather a little bit. So I don’t know if that bled into the stuff, the velocity. I’m not sure.”
Whatever, Flaherty is done doing NLCS damage, he won’t pitch again in this series, and his bad numbers don’t change the basic historical math.
Of the 93 teams that have taken three-games-to-one lead in a baseball series, 79 have won that series, a striking 85%.
Even though the Dodgers themselves bucked those odds in 2020 against the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS, there will be no upsets here.
The biggest remaining advantage for the Dodgers can be found in the players who didn’t play Friday. Thanks to Flaherty remaining in the game and wearing his struggles, guys such as Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips remained rested for Game 6 Sunday, when all will be used in a bullpen game against the Mets’ Sean Manaea.
This will work. This has worked. The Dodgers relievers threw a shutout against the Padres in their biggest win of the season, and they could have won Game 2 in the NLCS if the Dodgers didn’t decide to insert rookie starter Landon Knack into their midst.
There will certainly be criticism from some corners that the Dodgers punted on Friday’s game too early, that they could have pulled Flaherty after he walked two batters and yielded a two-run double to Starling Marte at the start of the third inning to put the Dodgers in a 5-1 deficit. But knowing they had two home games in their pocket, and knowing they’ll need their high-leverage relievers for potentially both of them, Roberts made the right call.
If you don’t agree with Roberts, wait and see the outcome of Sunday’s bullpen game before trashing him.
“And so for me at 5-1, I’m not going to deploy our leverage guys knowing there’s a cost on the back end and appreciating the fact that there’s still more baseball to play in the series,” Roberts said.
The Dodgers’ other advantage is having Buehler ready for a possible Game 7 Monday night. And he’ll be ready. He pitched four three-hit shutout innings against the Mets in Game 3 while showing much of his old fire. If the Dodgers would want one pitcher on the mound in a winner-take-all game at this stage, it would be Buehler.
Besides the pitching edge, the Dodgers’ hitters are raking, with two home runs from Andy Pages and another long ball from Mookie Betts, nine hits and a brief shortening of a 10-2 deficit.
“It was good to see our guys fight back,” Roberts said. “Certainly offensively we’re in a really good spot.”
In many ways, the Dodgers are still in a really good spot.
“We had a shot to win the game, I felt like,” said reliever Brent Honeywell, who gamely ate 4 ⅔ innings. “Batted our ass off here. We knew they were gonna fight tonight. That’s playoff baseball.”
So a series that should be done is not yet done.
But soon it will be.
Patience.
