From four-door pickups and EVs to nativars like this beautiful Echinacea ‘Sombrero Sangrita’, no matter the industry, future trends are anyone’s guess. | Allan Armitage
Let’s be honest, no one knows, but we must ask. As time moves on, what will ornamental horticulture look like five or even 10 years from now?
The business of growing, marketing, selling, and using plants is little different than manufacturing, marketing, selling, and using cars or any other commodity.
There will always be an emergence of trends, most quite subtle, until they are not. Hopefully, we can anticipate the trends and not be overtaken by them.
In the auto industry, buyers moved on from the large gas-guzzling sedans of American manufacturers to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars from Japan. It took Detroit a long time to catch up. Later, Detroit took the initiative and birthed the idea that everyday people, not just those from Wyoming and Iowa, wanted pickup trucks with four doors instead of two. The commuter truck has become an American icon.
We are now in the electric car phase, a trend many people wish to ignore and, except for Tesla, the American auto industry ignored as well. EVs (electric vehicles) are no longer a fad, and companies all over the world are marketing EVs to American consumers. In many countries, EVs are becoming the go-to vehicle. Anyone care to guess the leading country in electric vehicles per capita? It’s Norway, where approximately 80% of new cars sold are EVs; in the U.S. approximately 6%.
A Tesla EV (L) and a four-door pickup truck (R) | Allan Armitage
In the plant business, we also try to read the tea leaves. We have evolved from wooden flats to plugs and computer-controlled pot fillers. And who knew that many plant centers had to evolve into lifestyle centers? I can IKEA my way through many independent garden centers, passing the fountains and fashion handbags to the large selection of exclusive patio furniture before I ever see a plant for sale. These ILCs (Independent Lifestyle Centers) have evolved mostly because they had to. ILCs contribute to leisure time; leisure time and outdoor living contribute to plant sales. But what is on the horizon?
What is our industry’s equivalent to the four-door pickup truck? What is our EV? The answer to the first question must be the love affair with native plants. Not so long ago, native plants were dismissed as weeds, yet in the last 10 years, you cannot get away from them. As long as Monarch butterflies flit, bees stick their probosci into flowers, and politics dictates what plants have to be used for government installations, natives will be headliners. The best thing about all this is that gardeners and landscapers are very much on board. And as long as they demand vigor, color, and success, there will be an increased breeding effort on nativars for the foreseeable future.
What is our industry’s EV equivalent? What are we seeing that people want but we are shying away from? There are a number of potential responses, from “We are fine — if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” to “How will we ever get people off their phones and into the garden?”
However, I fear we have missed the boat on something we should have done many years ago, and that is to create a national marketing incentive. We tried, but we were too independent to believe if we contributed one-half of 1% toward a marketing initiative, it would be a waste of money. I guess we will never know. That train has left the station.
Perhaps we can focus our plant marketing on solution gardening — a concept that assists landscapers and gardeners to know how to use plants to solve problems. I see more of that happening, but it is a lot of work. And as long as we have spring following winter, we will sell plants with little additional need for marketing.
So, what is the future of our industry? Heck if I know. We have been around for hundreds of years, and I expect we will be here for at least another hundred. Whether we have Hummers or EVs, only time will tell.
